Finicast·The AI cycle vs prior tech cycles: scale, speed, size (as of 2026-09-23)ExcelView onlyLog in

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Figures as of 2026-09-23. Three lenses on the AI build-out against earlier technology cycles.

Scale: big-4 hyperscaler capex reaches … of US GDP in 2026E and … in 2027E, against a 1.2% peak for the 2000 telecom build.
Speed: generative AI reached ~40% of US adults in about 2 years; the internet took ~5 and the PC ~12.
Size: Nvidia is worth … of US GDP four years into the cycle; Cisco at its FY2000 peak was ….

Drivers to try on the Scale page: company capex guidance, 2027 capex growth and GDP growth.

2026E big-4 capex

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2026E capex, % of GDP

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2027E big-4 capex

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2027E capex, % of GDP

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Scale: peak annual investment, % of US GDP

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AI capex as % of GDP, 2019–2027E

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Speed: years to ~40% US adoption

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Size: bellwether market cap as % of GDP, by cycle year

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